The turmoil happening right now is the explosive unwinding of a business model that cannot be sustained by oil. AIG, bad mortgages, high unemployment, bank failures are not the causes of the unwinding, but the symptoms.
The Saudis, the Russians, the Venezuelans, the Mexicans all have falling output of oil. We have no alternative infrastructure in sight. Energy prices are down right now because factories are idle and not shipping anything. Energy prices are not going to stay down. This is the festering cancer waiting to come out of remission just as soon as the economy starts to turn around.
As a kid I had a favorite National Geographic betamax tape called Love those Trains that I would watch over and over. In part of the story, they follow a box car of lettuce that is picked in Southern California and finally delivered to a PTA luncheon in Boston. While I loved watching the trains, even as a kid I thought it was rather silly to ship lettuce from California to Boston. Even if Massachusetts couldn’t grow their own lettuce, I was sitting in the Garden State of New Jersey…. surely we, or some other close-to-Boston state, could produce enough lettuce to be able to supply Boston with salad instead of it coming from California.
We’re going to be forced to move to a more locally produced model of consumption. This will be a permanent change unless we develop and deploy an alternative fuel right now.
How could they think this was sustainable?
via Council on Foriegn Relations
edit: updating formating.
We’re arguing about AIG v. GM on the Cheers and Gears site. The argument started over an article by the Baltimore Examiner that compares the situation of the two companies.
One member posted this:
In the interest of “keeping it real”:
1) The AIG money has given the US partial ownership. So if you want to pretend the auto loans aren’t a bailout, then I suppose you could do the same thing for the AIG buyout.
2) AIG used to make money and has a good chance of making money again. GM hasn’t made money for a long time and likely will never get out from under their debt.
3) A failure by AIG by all accounts that I have heard would be catastrophic. GM’s failure will be hard but is a much less substantial affair.
4) The eventual cost to save GM will likely be in the 100 Billion range. I have trouble keeping up, but I believe they have already received 14 Billion + 6 Billion to GMAC + future 16 Billion + future retooling money + EREV subsidies. Also they are worth -86 Billion as of the end of 2008. Given the cost/risk as compared to AIG, AIG is where the money should go.
I will agree that the union being blamed for GM’s problems is just silly and the AIG bonuses are horrible. But that is US-capitalism for you.
My response here:
1) We paid $180b to own 80% of a company with a market cap of $3.3b and that has outstanding liabilities of $807b. For comparison, with $180b, the Feds could have purchased the entire liabilities side of GM’s balance sheet and had about $3b in change.
2 a.) AIG has a poor chance at making money again. Their name is permanently tarnished. They’ve had to take down their sign on their NYC headquarters. They have about as much chance of making money again as Enron does. BTW, I also use the term “making money” very loosely. AIG never “made” money……. they “made up” money sure… but most of the money “made” by them was imaginary.
2 b.) If by a “long time” you mean two years… then sure. GM had a quarterly profit of $891 million dollars in 2Q 2007. Net income, excluding one-time items, was $1.4 billion.
3 a.) Catastrophic to whom? DeutcheBank? Royal Bank of Scotland? Barclays UK? That’s where the bailout money went. Of the 15 banks that AIG made payouts to, only 4 were US based. All of which already received TARP funds.
3 b.)General Motors, it’s dealers, suppliers, and affiliates employ millions of people. The hit on employment in this country and others would be catastrophic. Not even Toyota wants to see GM liquidated because in the process it would take out suppliers that Toyota relies on. The quickest way to kill Ford and Chrysler would be through an uncontrolled G.M. bankruptcy. You don’t think that would be catastrophic?
4.) If $180b were to be extended to GM as a long term, low interest loan. The government would get it’s money back, with interest, Iaccoca style. We are getting a grand total of $0 back from AIG… because they weren’t loans.
So sure…. I’m all for “keeping it real”
What I don’t understand is this attitude of “Yeah the AIG bonuses piss me off, but we had to bail out AIG. Let GM die.”
Someone care to explain?
The government has given $170 billion of your dollars to AIG to stabilize them.
For that $170 billion, the government owns 80% of a company worth $4.33 billion as of this writing.
Via the New York Times – Andrew Cuomo sifts through the bonus payouts for AIG employees. From the $165 million in bonuses paid, 73 people received $1 million or more.
The bonuses were “retention” bonuses designed as incentives for the recipients to remain with the company. Eleven people who received such bonuses over $1 million are no longer with the company. One person was paid $4.6 million as a retention bonus. He/She is gone.
If not, what’s it gonna take?
Oh yeah…. the CEO suggested that up to half of each bonus be voluntarily given back.
Why are we still calling this a recession?
From the Wikipedia and Economic Depression is: A depression is a sustained, long downturn in one or more economies. Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.
- The Commerce department releases that in Q4 2008 the economy contracted at 6.2 percent. Predictions that in 2009 the economy will be the worst since 1946.
- The horribly underestimated jobless rate is 7.6 percent. Likely to hit 9 percent.
- California’s jobless rate is 10.1 percent in January.
- The Dow is at it’s lowest point since 1997 and dropping.
- 40% of all subprime mortgages issued from 2005 – 2007 are expected to default
- Indicators of price deflation are showing.
- Mortgages, credit cards, lines of credit all slashed.
- Bankruptcies surge 40%
- US exports fall 20%. Japanese exports fall 46%.
AIG posted a nearly $62 billion fourth quarter loss. So far, AIG has received $150 billion in taxpayer money and as of a plan announced today will receive and additional $30 billion of your dollars.
But these aren’t loans. These are gifts to AIG meant to help free up lending and spur the financial system. Here’s why it won’t: AIG’s total liabilities as of September 30 2008 were $951 billion. They can’t write new insurance policies because they don’t have the capital to back them up. No more streams of income, no way of paying that debt. The only way to pay their debts is to sell pieces of themselves off at decidedly above market prices.
Watch those dollars swirl round and round as they go down the drain.
To put the size of this in perspective. The government could have purchased 98% of General Motor’s liabilities for the same amount it has given to AIG. At least GM has a chance of surviving.