…….. and still are committing it.

Despite assuring everyone that they’ve stopped the practice, the Recorder of Winnebago County Illinois Nacy McPherson, reports that she is still receiving foreclosure filings that appear to have been “robo-signed” 

McPherson’s office sampled a small number of foreclosure documents in her office and found hundreds of apparent forgeries.

“‘Linda Green’ is on documents as vice president of Wells Fargo. She’s (on other documents as) vice president of (Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc.). She is vice president of Optical Mortgage Co. as well, and all of the signatures are completely different,” McPherson said. “Another name to take notice of is ‘Pat Kingston.’ She or he has several different titles. Lately, (the lenders or document providers) haven’t been using ‘Linda Green’ as much. There’s a new set of fake names. ‘Brian Blaine’ is the vice president of Chase Mortgage Bank. He is vice president of Washington Mutual Bank. He is vice president of Nations Credit Financial Services Corp. He’s vice president and attorney in fact for IndyMac Federal Bank.”

The Banks, meanwhile, are trying to negotiate an out of court settlement with the US-DOJ while not acknowledging any wrong doing with a side of immunity from future prosecutions.

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Except for that little dust up starting in 1938, the last time something in Austria fell, it started a World War. Fitch Ratings joined S&P and Moody’s in downgrading Hungary’s sovereign debt to junk level. Hungary rejected all bids at an auction of 12-month Treasury bills worth 40 billion forint ($186 million) after getting bids for only 22.8 billion forint. However, the concern is not for Hungary, but for neighboring Austria whose banks have a $226 billion exposure to the debt of former Soviet bloc countries. If Austrian banks fail, then… So it begins.

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Correlation isn’t causation, except when it is: Nevada passed a law effective October 1 that made it a felony – holding individuals criminally liable – to make a false representation concerning a real estate title. And then suddenly foreclosure filings in Nevada plunged dramatically in October.

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Further reading into the President’s new and improved HARP program to help troubled, underwater homeowners refinance into lower interest rate mortgages that we touched on yesterday reveals even more gooder goodness for the banks and further proof that this is a bank bailout and not a stimulus.

The first part, and this is a biggie, is that those new mortgages with their shiny new interest rates also magically convert into recourse mortgages instead of non-recourse.  That is, with a traditional mortgage today, if you default on the mortgage and the bank forecloses on your property, any deficiency between the auction price of the home and the remaining balance of the loan is eaten by the bank.

By converting these mortgages (which are already vastly underwater mind you) into recourse loans, that balance will now follow you around for all eternity or until bankruptcy court. Anyone who agrees to one of Obama’s new mortgages instead of going into foreclosure and living in the house rent free for 18 months needs to have their head examined.  Anyone who does this needs to realize that they have just signed their entire life away to the bank.

The next part is no less serious, but is more of a direct gift to the banks and only affects you as a taxpayer rather than a homeowner.

FHFA moved to protect lenders from having to buy back loans if underwriting problems are later found. “Of all the barriers, this may be the most significant,” said Gene Sperling, director of the White House National Economic Council.

Basically, the banks can keep right on going with their sloppy and fraudulent mortgage writing procedures and not suffer any consequences from their actions. When the mortgage fails, the bank doesn’t suffer, we the taxpayers do.

Thankfully, so few people will qualify for these new regulations and hopefully those who do will be told by you, dear reader, that doing this is such a terrible idea that the overall impact of Obama’s new mortgage plan on the taxpayers will be minimal.

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Forgive me, I’m still catching up on my reading.

This one jumped out at me:  The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Consumers Reduce Debt for Fifth Month in a Row

That headline taken in a vacuum should be good news right? Well… sorta. It was consumer debt that both drove the economy for the last 30 years and yet at the same time contributed to it’s implosion.

People drastically reducing spending and (hopefully) living within their means don’t help an economy that depends on consumer spending for 70% of it’s activity.  These people (including myself) are putting as much of their resources into reducing their debt and freeing themselves from the usurious practices of the banks.  But this is a case where we have too much of a good thing. If debt reduction happens too fast, the corresponding consumer spending reduction could extend this recession far longer than normal.

About the only good thing I can see coming from this either way is that if enough people relieve themselves of credit card debt, it will hurt the banks since they will no longer be able to make money from their usury. They might actually have to compete a little and put their interest rates at a reasonable level.

Anything that hurts the banks makes me smile a little inside. It’s not like they don’t deserve it.

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Fox New Business is reporting that Wells Fargo is suing itself.

In a condo foreclosure case in Florida, Wells Fargo holds the first mortgage and is suing all other lien holder, one of which is itself, the holder of the second mortgage.

Demonstrating that there is no such thing as “Too big to FAIL“, Wells Fargo hired Tampa lawfirm Florida Default Group of Tampa Florida to file suit against itself. WF then hired Kass, Shuler, Soloman, Spector, Foyle & Singer to defend itself from itself.

At this point, no matter the outcome, it seems as if the lawywers are the only winners in this case.

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We’re arguing about AIG v. GM on the Cheers and Gears site. The argument started over an article by the Baltimore Examiner that compares the situation of the two companies.

One member posted this:

In the interest of “keeping it real”:

1) The AIG money has given the US partial ownership. So if you want to pretend the auto loans aren’t a bailout, then I suppose you could do the same thing for the AIG buyout.
2) AIG used to make money and has a good chance of making money again. GM hasn’t made money for a long time and likely will never get out from under their debt.
3) A failure by AIG by all accounts that I have heard would be catastrophic. GM’s failure will be hard but is a much less substantial affair.
4) The eventual cost to save GM will likely be in the 100 Billion range. I have trouble keeping up, but I believe they have already received 14 Billion + 6 Billion to GMAC + future 16 Billion + future retooling money + EREV subsidies. Also they are worth -86 Billion as of the end of 2008. Given the cost/risk as compared to AIG, AIG is where the money should go.

I will agree that the union being blamed for GM’s problems is just silly and the AIG bonuses are horrible. But that is US-capitalism for you.

My response here:

1) We paid $180b to own 80% of a company with a market cap of $3.3b and that has outstanding liabilities of $807b. For comparison, with $180b, the Feds could have purchased the entire liabilities side of GM’s balance sheet and had about $3b in change.

2 a.) AIG has a poor chance at making money again. Their name is permanently tarnished. They’ve had to take down their sign on their NYC headquarters. They have about as much chance of making money again as Enron does. BTW, I also use the term “making money” very loosely. AIG never “made” money……. they “made up” money sure… but most of the money “made” by them was imaginary.
2 b.) If by a “long time” you mean two years… then sure. GM had a quarterly profit of $891 million dollars in 2Q 2007. Net income, excluding one-time items, was $1.4 billion.

3 a.) Catastrophic to whom? DeutcheBank? Royal Bank of Scotland? Barclays UK? That’s where the bailout money went. Of the 15 banks that AIG made payouts to, only 4 were US based. All of which already received TARP funds.
3 b.)General Motors, it’s dealers, suppliers, and affiliates employ millions of people. The hit on employment in this country and others would be catastrophic. Not even Toyota wants to see GM liquidated because in the process it would take out suppliers that Toyota relies on. The quickest way to kill Ford and Chrysler would be through an uncontrolled G.M. bankruptcy. You don’t think that would be catastrophic?

4.) If $180b were to be extended to GM as a long term, low interest loan. The government would get it’s money back, with interest, Iaccoca style. We are getting a grand total of $0 back from AIG… because they weren’t loans.

So sure…. I’m all for “keeping it real”

What I don’t understand is this attitude of “Yeah the AIG bonuses piss me off, but we had to bail out AIG. Let GM die.”

Someone care to explain?

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Here is the difference between what has happened and what is about to happen.

In the past 12 months, most of what has failed has been fairly standard, though sub-prime, adjustable rate mortgages. You get a $180k mortgage for a $200k home and get an adjustable interest rate that resets every year after 5 years or so. You paid the standard principle + interest + escrow. What has happened is the first bunch of homeowners who’s mortgages reset could no longer afford the new payments. Some refinanced, but a good many went into foreclosure. The foreclosures put downward pressure on home prices. When this happened, even fewer people could refinance their homes because the values of the home often fell below the amount of the first mortgage. The vicious cycle started and that’s how we got where we are today.

Keep in mind that 12 months of that have brought down the largest investment banks in the country, put Bank of America, CitiGroup, and Wells Fargo on the ropes, and forced mergers of banks that never would have happened in a normal climate.

Here is the fun part.

With an Option ARM loan you have the option to make partial principle and partial interest payments. What you don’t pay gets amortized back into the principle of the loan up to a maximum of 115% or 125% of the original loan value or once 5 years has been reached. Many people pick these types of loans because it was the only way they could afford the monthly payments on their McMansion. In the meantime, property values have fallen across the board making refinancing out of these loans virtually impossible. Once these loans are recast (similar to the resetting of the interest rate in an ARM), the home owner goes from making a minimum payment that doesn’t even cover interest to a fully amortizing payment that covers all interest AND principal. And remember, principal is 15-25% higher than the original loan balance. Most people with these types of loans also put no money down or got a second mortgage to pay for their money down. They owe 25% more than their home was valued at way back at peak housing prices. The payments jump to full amortization anywhere between 80% to 200% of the old house payment.

Now, with all that in mind. Lets look at the numbers.

The end of 2008 was the time period where the highest dollar value of standard ARM loans was due to reset. At the peak, about 36 billion dollars per month in loans reset. There is a lag with standard ARMs because the payment shock is anywhere between 0% and 20% increase in monthly payment. Many families can handle it for a short while before they start falling behind.

May/June 2009 is when the Option ARMs begin to reset. This wave has 3 small dips. The peak of the first wave hits us in December 2009 and reaches $25b per month in recasts. It drops off for a bit then shoots up to $30b a month in recasts around June 2010. Drops back to $20b per month in December 2010 and then surges to $40 billion per month in June 2011. Now when these loans recast, there will be a lot less lag time because the monthly payment will jump anywhere from 80% to 200% of what the homeowner is used to paying. With no way to pay and no ability to refinance, homeowners will throw in the towel much faster.

Are you ready for the punchline brought to us by Dr. Housing Bubble?

As of December of 2008, a stunning 28% of option ARMs were delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure. This is before any recasts have even kicked in!

Remember, the banks have already failed and consolidated from just the first mess. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are already dangling on the cliff.

Who’s next?

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